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What are YOUR chances of dying from COVID-19?

What are YOUR chances of dying from COVID-19.


A highly respected colleague, Christopher Hobbs, PhD, just posted this modeling that shows that, to date, most people who've been tested for Covid-19 in the U.S. have been considerably more ill than the average person who is infected with this virus...and as such, the death rate is highly skewed. Dr. Hobbs' modeling is similar to several others who are estimating a much smaller number of deaths because the vast majority of people infected with Covid-19 seem to experience mild and even no symptoms. And then, there are those who experience a “bad flu” but who do not require hospitalization.

(THIS paragraph was written on April 22, 2020, while the others here were written on April 1, 2020): In the past two weeks since I wrote this blog, several studies, including one from Stanford University, have confirmed the accuracy of the above modeling. It seems that the vast majority of people who get infected with Covid-19 do not experience any symptoms (!) or just extremely mild symptoms.)

For the record, the average age of a person who dies from Covid-19 is 79 years old. Further, deaths from people who had no “pre-existing chronic condition” was under 1%.

Based on this modeling and confirmed by several others, the estimated mortality rate from Covid-19 is now 0.15%, which is very similar to the death rate from yearly influenza statistics (please note that the mortality rate from the flu ALWAYS includes death from pneumonia, even though the media rarely, if ever, acknowledge this “messy” and questionably good data). (The generally accepted mortality rate for people under 60 years of age is 0.15%, according to this source.)


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